Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.221063 2.358359 2.503454 2.668843 2.852928 3.052450 3.286302
2025-07-27 2.050061 2.243333 2.458208 2.717171 3.024066 3.380440 3.832127
2025-08-03 1.910376 2.131087 2.384690 2.702011 3.094944 3.574834 4.220866
2025-08-10 1.803076 2.041086 2.321606 2.683177 3.147189 3.738467 4.577694
2025-08-17 1.708507 1.956525 2.254819 2.648679 3.169379 3.857445 4.880992
2025-08-24 1.628682 1.883299 2.194818 2.614758 3.184604 3.962622 5.171583
2025-08-31 1.574146 1.837265 2.164558 2.614830 3.241971 4.127322 5.567965
2025-09-07 1.532015 1.803811 2.147234 2.629019 3.317378 4.322234 6.037268
2025-09-14 1.473113 1.745485 2.093586 2.589020 3.310531 4.391092 6.306048
2025-09-21 1.418104 1.689563 2.039962 2.545027 3.293183 4.439949 6.544577
2025-09-28 1.366813 1.636301 1.987207 2.498717 3.268062 4.472473 6.756163
2025-10-05 1.349823 1.627555 1.993943 2.537154 3.373463 4.726523 7.430001
2025-10-12 1.333204 1.619163 2.001437 2.578170 3.488014 5.012851 8.242392
2025-10-19 1.318937 1.613238 2.011851 2.623821 3.613530 5.334369 9.217853
2025-10-26 1.286902 1.581527 1.984099 2.609504 3.638367 5.474143 9.813558
2025-11-02 1.255944 1.550132 1.955337 2.591712 3.655376 5.600213 10.410197
2025-11-09 1.222521 1.514152 1.918461 2.559113 3.644093 5.669109 10.877491
2025-11-16 1.191179 1.480111 1.883115 2.527045 3.631188 5.732913 11.350849
2025-11-23 1.170689 1.460737 1.868484 2.527113 3.675065 5.918447 12.242623
2025-11-30 1.154987 1.447610 1.862466 2.540528 3.743740 6.165386 13.428301
2025-12-07 1.126336 1.415082 1.826298 2.502703 3.714756 6.194270 13.899086
2025-12-14 1.098006 1.382317 1.788794 2.461075 3.675985 6.197059 14.283963
2025-12-21 1.070329 1.349862 1.750853 2.417229 3.630410 6.179782 14.594894